Understanding Finance and the Current Crisis The WritePass Journal

Understanding Finance and the Current Crisis Abstract Understanding Finance and the Current Crisis ). Credit Booms The other area of relevance is seen to be the areas of credit and how the credit markets influenced the financial behaviours leading up to and during the financial crisis (Brusco and Castiglionesi 2007). To a large extent, it can be argued that the increase in the asset price of housing across the US and UK was due to relatively easily available credit conditions that allowed a wide variety of individuals to purchase properties that were stretching their financial position to such an extent that, when fundamental factors changed, such as employment, the asset price could no longer be maintained. Based on the research, it has been suggested that the recent economic crisis was, in fact, down to a credit situation within the financial markets and not necessarily the asset itself, namely houses. Immediately prior to financial crises, there is indication that there was also a rapid increase in the amount of credit being made available, and during the recent financial crisis, the focus has been on credit availability for the purposes of purchasing property. However, similar issues have also emerged in short-term credit, such as personal loans and credit cards allowing individuals to gain access to credit streams that their income would not necessarily suggest should be available to the rational lender (Calomiris and Kahn, 1991). Interestingly, research has indicated that a credit boom will often happen as a result of a prolonged period of positive economic shock or following from a particular, economic growth in a region or market. This will suggest that where there was a great deal of growth and buoyancy within the housing market, this was a precursor to the credit boom (Claessens et al., 2010). It is also argued that monetary policies are also seen to be linked to the credit crisis, and that an understanding of the financial decision-making within the financial market can have a detrimental effect on whether or not the credit boom takes place. For example, it is suggested that low interest rates encouraged the US housing market and that more people were able to borrow money, at this lower interest rate. This shows an indication that a monetary policy decision, namely to reduce interest rates can have a knock-on effect on asset prices and credit availability, all of which has been arguably fundamental when it came to the recent economic crisis (Lansing, 2008). This type of activity has been referred to as financial liberalisation, whereby investors of every kind are more inclined to take financial risks and to pursue new financial opportunities, such as purchasing property. This type of liberalisation could also be seen as inherently linked to the willingness of banks to lend to customers and to have less stringent lending criteria which would appear to be linked to the volatility within the housing market, as having such financial flexibility within the banking sector allowed for the housing assets to boom, at an irrational level. This again suggests the notion that external factors and policies can ultimately change behaviours of agents within the financial markets and the decisions that they make, in terms of their own investments and their own decision-making (Dell’Ariccia, Igan and Laeven, 2012) Combined Impact on Financial Markets Having identified that there are the two factors in the unnaturally high price of assets, namely housing assets and the lenient credit conditions which were placed on the market through policy decisions such as low interest rates and low interference with banking regulations that have been deemed to be inherently linked to the recent credit crisis, it is unsurprising that a wide amount of research has been undertaken to look at how these factors came together to create the shift in the financial markets that have occurred, in recent years. By looking at the combined movement within the credit markets and within the housing market, it was established that there were substantial differences between the movements experienced as a result of external factors during a period of economic crisis and the reactions of similar changes during periods of stability. This suggests that the financial markets behave differently during a crisis, something which may be very relevant to how policymakers should behave when looking to navigate their way out of the financial crisis period. It has been identified that one of the key factors linked to a bust which is likely to result in a credit crisis can be seen in the volatility of the movement within the financial markets. Having identified that the two issues of available credit and the increasing house prices are inherently linked and that both factors led to the credit crisis, the researchers largely moved on to identifying how these factors have created the behaviours seen within the economy, in the last few years. Banking institutions have been perceived to be central to this, as these were the institution that lent the money and made credit available in the first place and also the first institution to suffer when the asset price dropped from the exceptionally high level and borrowers began to default. Research has looked at the way in which the banking institutions operate under these conditions, as it is perceived to be a particularly important means of determining the impact that the financial market is having on the credit crisis and the potential recovery. An argument has been presented which suggests that, where borrowing and lending is collateralised in some way and the market price of that collateral changes for the negative, the organisation simply cannot rely on this collateral, in order to continue its operations (Schleifer, 2000). In this case, collateral is deemed to be housing assets, although many of the financial institutions use complex arrangements in order to bundle the deb ts and sell them on to third parties, although fundamentally they were linked to the housing assets which were dropping as a result of changes in monetary policies and increasing concerns over the sustainability of house prices. Crucially, it is therefore argued according to rational behaviours where investors (in this case house buyers) opinions on the likely future for the assets and their own ability to sustain the assets change, so do the financial markets surrounding these assets, something which is particularly exacerbated when policy decisions result in an increase in interest rates and fears relating to employment levels, all of which creates a spiralling situation and potentially volatile reactions from investors. Implications of the crisis A large portion of the research and the literature in this area looks at the causes of the economic crisis and attempts to identify patterns that could offer explanatory value as to why the crisis happened in the way that it did. However, it is contended in this literature review that the real value comes from identifying the implications of the asset and credit crisis, in terms of the reactions of financial institutions and how this can potentially be used as a means of recovery for the future. Specific research looking at the reasons for the financial bubble indicated that banking institutions were central to the crisis, in terms of encouraging excess lending and therefore also encouraging the unnaturally high house prices, which became unsustainable, in the long run. Some of the literature has focused almost entirely on the economic crisis and the impact that this has had on longer-term economic activity (Claessens, Kose, and Terrones, 2012). Research has indicated that, whilst the economic crisis itself created problems in the housing market, it also ultimately led to greater widespread recession than would normally be expected in the typical cycle associated with the performance of the economy. Various different research approaches have been taken in order to compute the precise impact that the recent economic crisis has had on financial markets and how this can ultimately be used to pave the way forwards. The approach taken by Claessens, Kose, and Terrones, 2012, used traditional methodology of analysis the business cycles, in order to identify whether or not a recessionary period is being entered into. This theoretical approach argued that recessionary periods, which are associated with a form of asset crisis, in this case a credit and housing would cost more to the economy overall than any drop associated simply with equity prices, e.g. as part of the traditional business cycle. Of perhaps more interest regarding this topic, going forward, is the way in which the financial markets are likely to recover from the period of recession, with research suggesting that recovery will typically be low and weak in comparison with the volatility of the drop, in the first place (Kannan, Scott, and Terrones 2013). This body of research is deemed to be highly relevant, as it not only looks towards linking the concept of credit crisis with the way in which the financial markets are behaving, but also explores how these two factors can interact, in order to deal with the recovery, in the most appropriate way, something which is likely to be of interest to policymakers and those within financial markets, for the future. Future possible research and conclusions Despite the myriad of different research papers which focus on different aspects of the credit crisis and have looked at the interaction between credit and housing, as well as external monetary factors, the real value comes from understanding the reactions and behaviours of an economic crisis, as a means of improving recovery prospects. One particular area of research that would be beneficial in this regard is the way in which the financial markets fluctuate, even where there is no ultimate crisis. This is deemed to be important, as there is a cycle that emerges within the financial markets which must necessarily be understood, if the true measure of a crisis is to be established, in the future. Without understanding what is perceived to be ‘normal’, it is simply impractical to appreciate the cause and effect of abnormal periods within the economic cycle and how these can be reduced or mitigated, in the long run. References Blanchard, O. 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